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1st June 2013: Proposal for ISA’s 2014 Annual Convention

The International Studies Association is holding its Annual Convention for 2014 in Toronto, Canada.

 

Below is one proposal I have submitted for consideration by the International Political Economy and International Security sections:

 

Geopolitical Flashpoints, Systemic Risk & Distal-Influenced Spatiality

 

Abstract: Geopolitical flashpoints and systemic risk are now global arbitrage opportunities for hedge funds and political risk firms. Bridgewater (Ray Dalio), AQR Capital Management (Aaron C. Brown), PIMCO (Bill Gross & Mohamed El-Erian), Roubini Global Economics (Nouriel Roubini), and Stratfor (George Friedman & Robert D. Kaplan) have each contributed to media, policy, and practitioner debates about the 2008-10 rare earths bubble, the United States pivot toward Asia, and Iran-Syria-Russia oil speculation. This paper uses develops a Bayesian inference framework which emphasizes distal (far away) and spatial cause-effect relationships, in order to explain how hedge funds and political risk firms as non-state actors can enact global arbitrage and actively influence/shape public debates. I integrate analytical research from the sociology of finance (Donald MacKenzie), international security (Stephen G. Brooks), critical world security (Michael T. Klare & Naomi Klein), intelligence studies (Amy B. Zegart, Robert Jervis, & Gregory Treverton), hedge funds (Andrew Busch & Andrew Lo), and fictional speculation (Richard K. Morgan), to develop a new, inductive theory-building alternative to current explanations that emphasize proximate (near) and temporal causes. This paper advances new understanding about ‘casino capitalism’ (Susan Strange), expert networks, hedge fund activism, and political risk arbitrage.

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30th August 2012: Geopolitical Strategic Uncertainty

The Interpreter‘s Rory Medcalf asks:

 

But bear with me. What if, this time, complex uncertainty really is the order of the day, indeed, of the next two decades?

 

In the 1990s the Global Business Network‘s Peter Schwartz popularised scenario planning as a methodology to deal with complex uncertainty. John Petersen’s Arlington Institute considered wild cards and side-swipes. The political scientists Robert Jervis (System Effects) and James N. Rosenau (Distant Proximities) have explored the kinds of causal interactions and second/third-order effects that Medcalf suggests about the global order and trends. Perhaps we’ll all be reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb‘s new book Anti-Fragile when it’s released in November.