What I’m also currently working on for the Master of Special Operations and Irregular Warfare at UNSW Canberra @ ADFA for the graduate unit ZHSS8461 Threats (Guerrilla, Revolutionary, Insurgent and Militia) and Irregular Warfare.
Abstract
The global world order is likely transitioning to a multipolar, post-liberal system. Unconventional Warfare (UW) using proxies and surrogates is likely to increase in covert / clandestine tempos. Enter, Unconventional Deterrence as a strategic framework and policy instrument for focusing Australian military power [1] [2].
The proxies and surrogates (malign actors) who undertake this Unconventional Warfare against Australia must be understood by intelligence analysts and military planners, in defence intelligence fusion teams. This involves mentalisation, target-centric intelligence, and grasping the strategic logics of malign actors: their theory of victory [3] [4] [5] [6].
The “cultural turn” in strategic studies helps to bridge this mentalisation gap [7]. One way is via midrange theories of organisational-level strategic subcultures: how malign actors innovate new concepts, develop sovereign capabilities, and deploy kinetic and non-kinetic force with strategic surprise. [8] [9]. An immediate step would be to translate this midrange theory into the “lessons learned” already from World War II propaganda [10] and the Heuer school of intelligence analysis taught in the Central Intelligence Agency’s Directorate of Intelligence [11].
Whilst this may provide a growth process of malign actor lifecycles it is not sufficient for UW operationally [12]. UW personnel need to develop their mentalising capacities, in consultation with qualified medical staff (such as psychiatrists, clinical psychologists, and counsellors) who have military psychology expertise [13] [14]. Recent advances and the historical legacy of rich clinical observations in psychodynamic psychology may also be worth integrating, from a transtheoretical informed viewpoint [15] [16] [17] [18].
(248 words)
Bibliography
[1] Burt, Sally, David Kilcullen, Ian Langford & Andrew Maher. “Unconventional Deterrence in Australian Strategy.” Canberra, Australia: UNSW Canberra, https://www.unsw.edu.au/canberra/our-research/world-in-transition/content/unconventional-deterrence-in-australian-strategy
[2] Australian Defence Force. Australian Military Power (ADP Capstone Doctrine) (2nd ed.). Canberra: Commonwealth of Australia, 2024.
[3] Voros, Joseph. “Reframing Environmental Scanning: An Integral Approach.” Foresight 3(6), 533-551, https://figshare.swinburne.edu.au/articles/journal_contribution/Reframing_environmental_scanning_An_integral_approach/26244818/1/files/47571659.pdf
[4] Clark, Robert M. Intelligence-Centric Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (8th ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2026.
[5] Kilcullen, David. The Dragon and the Snakes: How The Rest Learned to Fight the West. Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2020.
[6] Martel, William C. Victory In War: Foundations of Modern Strategy (rev. ed.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2011.
[7] Porter, Patrick. Military Orientalism: Eastern War Through Western Eyes. London: Hurst & Co (Publishers), 2009.
[8] Burns, Alex. The Development of Strategic Culture in Terrorist Organisations. PhD Dissertation. Clayton, Australia: Monash University, 2020, https://bridges.monash.edu/articles/thesis/The_Development_of_Strategic_Culture_in_Terrorist_Organisations/12154533/1?file=22349793
[9] Burns, Alex. PhD Candidature Material 2011-2020. Clayton, Australia: Monash University, 2020, https://unsw.academia.edu/AlexBurns/PhD%20Dissertation
[10] Pomerantsev, Peter. How To Win An Information War: The Propagandist Who Outwitted Hitler. London: Faber, 2024.
[11] Heuer, Richard J. The Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. McLean, VA: Central Intelligence Agency, 1999, https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/static/9a5f1162fd0932c29bfed1c030edf4ae/Pyschology-of-Intelligence-Analysis.pdf
[12] United States Government. Unconventional Warfare Pocket Guide. Fort Bragg, NC: United States Special Operations Command, 2016, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVPUB-D101-PURL-gpo107846/pdf/GOVPUB-D101-PURL-gpo107846.pdf
[13] Sharp, Carla, Dickon Bevington, & Peter Fonaggy. Mentalizing In Therapy: A Guide for Practitioners. New York: Guilford Press, 2022.
[14] Kennedy, Carrie H. & Eric A. Zilmer (Eds.). Military Psychology: Clinical and Operational Applications (3rd ed). New York: Guilford Press, 2022.
[15] Lingiardi, Vittorio & Nancy McWilliams (Eds.). Psychodynamic Diagnostic Manual – PDM-3 (3rd ed). New York: Guilford Press, 2026.
[16] Williams, Nancy. Psychoanalytic Diagnosis: Understanding Personality Structure in the Clinical Process (2nd ed.). New York: Guilford Press, 2020.
[17] McWilliams, Nancy. Psychoanalytic Psychotherapy: A Practitioner’s Guide. New York: Guilford Press, 2004.
[18] Prochaska, James O., John C. Norcross & Judith J. Prochoska. Systems of Psychotherapy: A Transtheoretical Analysis (10th ed). New York: Oxford University Press USA, 2024.