The AGI-Unemployment-Real Estate Nexus

A causal pathway / scenario for an economic crash in the next 12-18 months.

A. Anton Kreil (ITPM) has identified a nexus between AGI adoption; white-collar unemployment; and likely defaults in commercial real estate and residential mortgages. It’s from the Norbert Wiener (cybernetics) playbook of the late 1950s and early 1960s. I have suggested some plausible catalyst events and environmental scanning indicators.

B. Investor Howard Marks has released a must read new memo.

C. Michael Mauboussin has released a Morgan Stanley research paper on capital allocation.

D. The secret to an 83-year-old marriage.

E. Retirement planning advice plus some suggested resources.

F. SBF’s mother Barbara Fried is posting from his Substack about FTX / Alameda.

G. How the film Heaven’s Gate (1980) destroyed the studio United Artists.

H. I saw the 2025 vinyl re-release of Patti Smith’s Horses (1975) last week. It looks good.

I. A Colorado Mesa University free class on Hannah Arendt and the Origins of Totalitarianism: Lessons for Our Times.

J. FT on the leading contemporary minds behind AI.