Prop Bet Arbitrage

Prop bets are changing sports betting markets.

A. Athletes are conducting fraud using prop bets in the growing sports betting markets in the United States. This has long been a problem in prop firms and smaller hedge funds as well that the Volcker Rule has attempted to resolve: many prop firm traders have migrated to both DeFi crypto and sports betting instruments in order to harness both implied volatility and asymmetric risk-reward profiles.

B. Today’s MIT OCW free course is Finance Theory I developed by Professor Andrew W. Lo (known for the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis study; book; and the further development of AMH’s mathematical foundations). Professor Lo co-founded Quantitative Life Sciences in 2025.

C. The New Yorker’s John Cassidy on how the second Trump administration’s tariffs affect commodities prices.

D. The New Republic’s Ketan Joshi contends that AI’s role is to promote economic consumption.

E. Job cuts at the CSIRO highlights a venture capital informed managerial style.

F. Technosolutionist France in the 1970s and 1980s.

G. Every dream has its true costs that must be paid (in the end). Building the train railway depicted in this film also captures a key insight from the Daniel Gross book Pop: Why Bubbles Are Great For The Economy (New York: HarperBusiness, 2009): you need to invest in the build-out of an industry during an innovation S-curve model, before it becomes profitable. Examples include fibre cable (Global Crossing) during the 1995-2000 Dotcom bubble, and the post-2022 Artificial General Intelligence bubble that is being driven by chips and data centres.

H. IonQ’s quantum computing systems (AUKUS Pillar 2 relevant).