ISA 2027 Panel Submissions
What I have proposed to present at the International Studies Association's annual convention (virtual option) in March 2027.
The International Studies Association is holding its annual convention in March 2027. After members raised concerns, the ISA has included a virtual option for those who are Global South scholars; who do not have institutional support; or who may face travel advisory barriers. I last attended ISA in person in 2014 (knocking back invitations in 2013, 2015, and sometime in the early 2020s), so the virtual option is most realistic for me. If either (or both) of the proposals below are accepted, they will be based on OSINT data. I will make the presentation slides and audio recordings publicly available.
Volatility Arbitrageurs, Hedge Funds (Meso-Level Strategic Subcultures), and Conflict Alpha
President Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president of the United States on 20th January 2025 signalled the shift to a mercantilist ethic and economic statecraft instruments. This new doctrine remains unarticulated in a declaratory way in part due to occurring in (and catalysing) ruptures and regime shifts. Instead, it operates in the “phase zero” (Brian S. Petit) of cognitive, hybrid, information, memetic, and other (morphological) forms of war. The efficient frontier lies in alternative investments—notably in event, global macro, statistical arbitrage, and volatility oriented hedge funds. These are institutional vehicles for private investor capital that allow greater operational flexibility with portfolio (strategic level) and execution trader (tactical level) functions.
This paper draws on 15 years of (unpublished) observation of Australian and United States financial markets; meso-level research of hedge funds as strategic subcultures (Jack Snyder) in the international political economy; and that provide arbitrage, optionality, and “risk on” based approaches which can augment traditional nation-state based defence and foreign policies. How do volatility arbitrageurs really work in global financial markets? How and why have hedge funds adapted? How—given regulatory restrictions on profiting from assassinations, terrorism, war, and force majeure events—are these volatility arbitrageurs and hedge funds able to achieve conflict alpha?
Prediction Market Intelligence: Lessons for Analysts and Policymakers
On 16th March 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued an Advance Notice of Proposed Comment on digital platforms called prediction markets that allow speculation on event contracts. Firms like Kalshi and Polymarket have grown rapidly: the public’s interest in sports betting, the sentiment peak of an equities market bubble, cost of living and employment fears, and viral storytelling of winner-takes-all lottery / windfall-like payouts on X (formerly Twitter) and other social media networks. Prediction markets remain illegal in many international jurisdictions, like Australia.
How might prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket be used as Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) or alternative data (hedge funds and proprietary trading firms)? What are the benefits and dangers of using them as a data input into the intelligence cycle? What is the potential for deception, counterdeception, and misperception? How could this OSINT data be integrated with other data sources (operational risk)? Are prediction markets a failed ‘silver bullet’ (Frederick Brooks, The Mythical-Man Month, 1975) or just a technological fad in recurring hype cycles (Gartner)?
This paper offers some initial reflections for analysts and policymakers that draw cumulatively on MSc, MA, and PhD studies (2002-20), and experience with the former website Disinformation (1998-2008).