Compellance Based Brinkmanship on Greenland and Venezuela
How and why United States President Donald Trump and hedge funds are targeting both countries.
A. Michael Dirda considers science fiction author Fitz-James O’Brien.
B. Conversion memoirs offer a guide to how and why we adopt particular religious beliefs (or not).
C. Hedge funds are looking into Venezuela’s debt. Gregory Makoff’s recent book Default (Washington DC: Georgetown University Press, 2025) on Argentina’s debt restructuring offers a guide of what arbitrageur strategies are likely to be used in international courts. See the book website; his New York Times columns; an Unsiloed podcast episode; and details of a past talk to the Harvard Kennedy School. Anthea Roberts and Nicolas Lamp’s book Six Faces of Globalization (Boston, MA: Harvard University Press, 2024) provides the overarching context - Roberts (who I have supported administratively) specialises in relevant international law for investor-state dispute settlement.
D. Venezuela and Greenland are all about United States President Donald Trump grabbing rare earths - to benefit his billionaire political backers and clique. There is also domestic blowback of further violence in the US. Trump’s compellance based brinkmanship with Denmark over Greenland has reignited interest about using optionality in geopolitical risk arbitrage. US officials have already run a war game on a post-Maduro Venezuela. This war game and related crisis scenario planning likely informs the second Trump administration’s demands for preferential access to Venezuela’s oil (the key is that it is at market price - a focus on Delta in terms of the Option Greeks, or changes and fluctuations in the price of an asset). The roots of this war gaming lie in part in Cold War nuclear strategy and how both alliance politics and extended nuclear deterrence are used to manage geopolitical risks and potential crisis escalation. This is depicted in the first 30 minutes of the legendary British film Threads (1984).
E. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has appointed former High Court justice Virginia Bell to head a Royal Commission on countering antisemitism and strengthening social inclusion in response to the Bondi terror attack / mass shooting and political pressure.
F. How the calendar shapes our subjective framing and phenomenological experiences of time.
G. Quentin Tarantino on the George Miller film Mad Max: Fury Road (2015).
H. Martin Shkreli on photonic computing (relevant to AUKUS Pillar 2).
I. Today’s MIT OCW free course is on Great Power Military Intervention created by Professor Barry Posen (Google Scholar profile) and Professor Roger Petersen (Google Scholar profile).