Assessing Cognitive Warfare
Does "cognitive warfare" have construct validity? Defence intellectuals debate.
A. Small Wars Journal has an interview with Dr Frank Hoffman on assessing cognitive warfare - a recent essay that he wrote. Dr Hoffman also makes some very interesting comments about United States strategic culture in the second Trump administration. I know a little bit about this debate’s historical precursors in a United States strategic PSYOP context.
B. The Australian National University’s Associate Professor Danielle Ireland-Piper has written today for the Lowy Interpreter about the unfolding legal debate on Nicolas Maduro’s “irregular extradition from Venezuela to the United States. The Brookings Institution is considering the also emerging global implications.
C. Australia is engulfed in fire season. The RAND Corporation has a “just in time” new report on “lessons learned” from the US wildfire management system (part of Civil Affairs capabilities).
D. At least 500 people have died in Iran due to the latest protests. Political analysts are looking back to 1979. Now is a good time to perhaps read up on Charles Tilly’s revolutions process (see The Politics of Collective Violence and Regimes & Repertoires) and Robert Jervis on strategic intelligence failure (Why Intelligence Fails).
Put this query prompt / key intelligence question into the (OSINT) Generative AI tool of your choice and see what results you may get:
“What US, UK, Canadian, Australian, European, Russian, Asian and Latin American transnational companies will benefit if Iran's current protests overthrow the existing Iranian government similar to 1979? Describe in terms of market access to critical minerals, rare earths and other key resources.”
E. The United States domestic agency ICE is adopting propaganda techniques as part of its latest recruitment drive and media / perception management.
F. Today’s MIT OCW free course is on Prediction: Machine Learning and Statistics by Duke University’s Distinguished Professor Cynthia Rudin (Google Scholar profile).
G. Blackstone’s president Jon Gray on scaling organisational culture.
H. The world is steadily moving towards the market conditions for a potential financial crash - or at least a significant correction or deregulation. The informative Patrick Boyle on Finance channel on YouTube explains the 1987 financial crash in the United States called Black Monday. Diana B. Henriques’ book A First-Class Catastrophe: The Road to Black Monday, the Worst Day in Wall Street History (New York: Henry Holt, 2017) is the best recent journalistic reportage / creative non-fiction history of what happened. Boyle draws on his background in investment banking to explain why.