30th August 2012: Geopolitical Strategic Uncertainty

The Interpreter‘s Rory Medcalf asks:

 

But bear with me. What if, this time, complex uncertainty really is the order of the day, indeed, of the next two decades?

 

In the 1990s the Global Business Network‘s Peter Schwartz popularised scenario planning as a methodology to deal with complex uncertainty. John Petersen’s Arlington Institute considered wild cards and side-swipes. The political scientists Robert Jervis (System Effects) and James N. Rosenau (Distant Proximities) have explored the kinds of causal interactions and second/third-order effects that Medcalf suggests about the global order and trends. Perhaps we’ll all be reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb‘s new book Anti-Fragile when it’s released in November.