14th January 2013: Second Acts

Minyanville‘s Justin Sharon has profiled five ‘second acts’ in finance: Michael Milken, Henry Blodget, Martha Stewart, Jamie Dimon, and Apple.

 

Sharon’s choices have several lessons for career planning. Milken and Blodget developed new media and philanthropic vehicles after legal prosecutions ended their Wall Street careers. Stewart survived an insider trading case to re-establish her super-profitable media empire. Dimon waited for the right job and used his attention to detail to benefit from merger negotiations. Steve Jobs made turnaround cutbacks at Apple and then oversaw the development of disruptive new products that created profitable new markets. The common thread in all five cases appears to be: resilience; ‘decision rights’ control of an organization used as a personal vehicle; and either creating or seizing on breakout opportunities.

Ebook Textbooks & The Market for Lemons

The software consultant Ed Yourdon once warned US programmers in his book Decline and Fall of the American Programmer (1992) that they faced global hypercompetition.  This was a fashionable message in the turbulent early 1990s of industry deregulation, export tariffs, mega-mergers, downsizing and reengineering.  Spenglerian pessimism made Decline and Fall an IT bestseller as Eastern European and Russian computer programmers emerged as low cost competition with their US counterparts.  Now in Thomas Friedman‘s vision of a flatter world the Eastern European and Russian computer programmers have help from an unlikely source: electronic copies of IT textbooks.

Several barriers mean that US textbook publishers are cautious about embracing ebook versions.  Publishers fear the Napsterisation of ebooks on peer-to-peer networks.  There’s no standard ebook device although Amazon’s Kindle is the latest candidate.  There’s no standard ebook format: most use Adobe PDF, however when Acrobat 8 was released Adobe shifted its ebook functionality to a new Digital Reader that did not necessarily read a user’s existing ebook collection.  Potential customers do not have a utility function to necessarily favour ebooks over printed copies: publishers charge high prices for ebook versions that may contribute a higher contribution margin to profits but that give the customer little price differential compared with print counterparts.

The implementation of digital rights management (DRM) also leaves much to be desired: McGraw-Hill’s Primis uses a digital fingerprint on a hard-drive that voids an ebook even if reinstalled on a reformatted drive due to a virus, whilst Thomson’s Cengage Learning uses a time-sensitive model which gives the user access for one semester to an ebook with the full price of its exact print version.  Publishers are also slow to adjust cross-currency rates: Australian textbooks still cost $A120-$200 despite near parity between the Australian and US dollars.

Thus, it’s no surprise that ebook divisions remain small in multinational publishing conglomerates.  One exception is Harvard Business School Press which appears to have ditched Sealed Media’s DRM plugin for Adobe Acrobat after Oracle acquired SM in August 2006 and then had integration problems with information rights management.

These barriers suggest a failure in market design with analogies to George Akerlof‘s study of the used car market in his influential paper The Market for Lemons (1970).  Publishers counter that although there is a lack of ebook standards similar to Akerlof’s paper the economics of publishing provide a disincentive to lower prices.  They claim high fixed costs in printing, photography rights and licensing fees for the case studies taken from Businessweek, Fortune and The Wall Street Journal.  Author fees and promotional budgets to professional associations add variable costs –  however, Australian academics have a disincentive to publish textbooks compared with their US colleagues, as Australia’s Department of Education, Employment & Workplace Relations does not provide recognition points.

To survive US textbook publishers have turned to global market models with regional editions of popular texts (such as Asia-Pacific editions with local coauthors), and adopted the music industry’s business model of electronic and online content (similar to how record labels have released Dualdisc, DVD and collectors editions of albums).  However as Yourdon warned US programmers this may not be a business model with longterm sustainability.  MIT’s OpenCourseWare, Apple’s iTunesU and Scribd all provide free content that mirrors the generic content in most textbooks, although some differentiate via a problem-based approach.

Yourdon’s ‘challenger’ computer programmers now also have illegal BitTorrent sites such as The Pirate Bay, filehosting networks such as Rapidshare, and ebook sites including Avaxsphere.com and PDFCHM to choose from.  The last two provide solutions to Akerlof’s challenge in market design: they have an easier user interface, a broader (illegal) catalogue of ebook titles, and DRM-free files compared to Cengage Learning or McGraw-Hill.  Even business strategists are getting in on the act, as Clayton Christensen, Curtis Johnson & Michael Horn explore in Disrupting Class: How Disruptive Innovation Will Change the Way the World Learns (McGraw-Hill, New York, 2008).

There’s one textbook coauthor who came up with a unique solution to Akerlof’s dilemma in market design.  His Macroeconomics book coauthors Andrew Abel and Dean Croushore opted for the mod-cons from publisher Addison-Wesley: an online site and a one-semester ebook version as a bundle deal.  The textbook coauthor?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.