In his science fiction trilogy Foundation (1951-53) author Isaac Asimov uses a deus ex machina called a Seldon Crisis to explore how uncertainty and exogenous shocks can affect long-range planning. Asimov’s series dealt with this at the “macrohistorical” level of galactic empires, civilisations and the attempts by a Toynbee-like “creative minority” to prevent or shorten a new Dark Ages.
Yet the Seldon Crisis can also be applied to the lifecycles of organisations and personal lives.
For organisations it surfaces in leadership crises, succession planning, mergers & acquisitions, and turnarounds.
At a personal or “microhistorical” level it surfaces in the “integrity tests” of life: influence, money, power, relationships, values and the desire to leave a legacy.
The macrohistorical, organisational and microhistorical dimensions can also interweave to shape group decision-making and individual perceptions. One criteria for effective leadership in these circumstances is the ability to remain "aware" of the macrohistorical forces at play; the organisational, cultural and group dynamics; and to cultivate an individual presence.