Swinburne MSSF alumnus Stephen McGrail---who runs the Fore-sight and Members Circle programs for Melbourne-based consultancy Futureye---has written an Age article on how the "three L's"---legislation, litigation and liability---have cross-impacted to make a "low-carbon future" a priority for forward-looking businesses and legislators.
McGrail's central argument is that climate change issues have important implications for decision-makers who have a long-term vision:
Today's decisions need to look ahead more and to consider the world as it might be, as well as how it is today. Companies considered to be major contributors to global warming are likely to be forced to take responsibility, creating a liability cloud floating over many organisations. Are these just isolated events, or are they part of a bigger picture? What are the potential implications?While these are important questions, I believe the real questions for business are slightly different: what possible outlooks are there over the next few years and how ready are we? What future might we face in 10 or 20 years and how can we plan for these?
The outlook is highly uncertain. Proposals for climate change adaptation and mitigation range from evolutionary to revolutionary. Ideas, climate change research, and campaigning organisations are constantly emerging.
McGrail's stakeholder analysis varies from activist/author George Monbiot to the Central Victorian Greenhouse Alliance and environmental organisation WWF Australia. He contrasts the "drastic action" stance of Monbiot with the "slowly, slowly" approach of Federal Government policymakers and energy industry advocates. Each stakeholder has their own "preferred future" and will be impacted in different ways by Jim Dator's "tsunamis of change". Consequently, McGrail concludes that many stakeholders would benefit from a "forward view" perspective in their communications and strategic planning:
I believe organisations need to adopt some proven foresight tools, processes such as scenario planning and environmental scanning — as well as a longer-term perspective.
Will the Federal Government, energy industry and environmental stakeholders heed McGrail's advice?